Gewittervorhersage

Gewittervorhersage des European Storm Forecast Experiment (Estofex).

Level

This level is valid for the area that does not fall under level 1, 2, or 3, implying that the expected probability of severe convective weather appears insignificant. There is 0-5% probability that a severe convective storm will occur within 40 km radius of a location. By the definition of probability isolines, the probability is just below 5% in the direct vicinity of level 1 contours.

Level

Threat level 1 corresponds to a probability of 5% to 15% that a severe convective storm will occur within 40 km radius of a location. This is the most common threat level and is used when a low threat of severe weather has been identified.

Level

Threat level 2 corresponds to a probability greater than 15% that a severe convective storm will occur within 40 km radius of a location. This is a significant threat that expresses larger confidence in the occurrence of severe storms. While extremely severe weather phenomena are not part of the criterion, there is a slightly increased probability for these as well (3-5%).

Level

Threat level 3 is issued when there is a significant threat (probability greater than 15%) of extremely severe convective storms to occur within 40 km radius of a location. Level 3 is rarely issued and implies that a major severe weather outbreak is expected. Examples include the derecho (a thunderstorm system producing widespread extreme wind gusts) that struck a large part of Germany on July 10th 2002. Major tornado outbreaks also require a level 3. An example is the outbreak that occurred on June 25th 1967 across France, Belgium and the Netherlands, and the more recent case of tornadoes and large hail across Poland on August 15th 2008.

Thunderstorms

Apart from the threat areas, the maps show two yellow lines: the areas where lightning is forecast, separating very low | medium | high probability of lightning to occur within 40 km radius of a location on the map.

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